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November092020

Reserve Bank Official Cash rate down to 0.10%.

Reserve Bank announced its cash rate decision on the 3 rd November reducing the same to 0.10%, the lowest in the history of the bank. This move marks the first time that the RBA has cut rates by less than 25 basis points. At the time of publishing this post, only three majors have responded to RBA announcement. Though there is no change to the variable rates, CBA, ANZ & NAB have reduced their Fixed Rates by reducing different amounts. NAB has reduced its 4-Year Fixed Rate to 1.98% whereas the same with CBA is 1.99%. Both rates are under their Professional Packages. RBA Governor Philip Lowe stated in his statement. ”the Board decided on a package of further measures to support job creation and the recovery of the Australian economy from the pandemic. With Australia facing a period of high unemployment, the Reserve Bank is committed to doing what it can to support the creation of jobs. Encouragingly, the recent economic data have been a bit better than expected and the near-term outlook is better than it was three months ago. Even so, the recovery is still expected to be bumpy and drawn out and the outlook remains dependent on successful containment of the virus.” ” In Australia, the economic recovery is under way and positive GDP growth is now expected in the September quarter, despite the restrictions in Victoria. It will, however, take some time to reach the pre-pandemic level of output. In the central scenario, GDP growth is expected to be around 6 per cent over the year to June 2021 and 4 per cent in 2022. The unemployment rate is expected to remain high, but to peak at a little below 8 per cent, rather than the 10 per cent expected previously. At the end of 2022, the unemployment rate is forecast to be around 6 per cent.” “Given the outlook for both employment and inflation, monetary and fiscal support will be required for some time. For its part, the Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range. For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently. This will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market. Given the outlook, the Board is not expecting to increase the cash rate for at least three years. The Board will keep the size of the bond purchase program under review, particularly in light of the evolving outlook for jobs and inflation. The Board is prepared to do more if necessary.”